By applying supply-demand balance analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated, and the results were used to assess the vulnerability of the water resources system in the basin. The IPAT equation was used to establish a future water resource demand scenario, which involved setting various variables, such as the future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and water consumption per unit GDP. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were predicted. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydro-meteorological Institute, a model of the variation trends of the basin under a changing climate was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario in response to climate change. According to the national regulations of the water resource allocation in the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the grain production-related land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources in scenarios of climate change, glacial melting and population growth was analysed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities in the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.
YANG Linsheng, ZHONG Fanglei
The data set records the urbanization rate data of each state of Tajikistan from 2000 to 2016.The data is from kazakhstan's national statistics bureau. Urbanization is a concept with broad implications.In a narrow sense, it generally refers to the urbanization of population, which refers to the increase of the number of cities and the expansion of the urban scale, and the process of population aggregation to cities in a certain period.Urbanization rate refers to the proportion of permanent urban residents in a region in the total permanent resident population.The name of the original index is Russian, which has been translated and edited.The accuracy of the official data can provide basic data basis for the study of the socio-economic development of central Asian countries.
HUANG Jinchuan, MA Haitao
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